United Kingdom (Northern Ireland): Fuel Prices Begin to Rise Amid Middle East Tensions

Ireland: Average fuel prices at the pump have risen by around 1% over the past week, following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, according to the Consumer Council for Northern Ireland. However, analysts warn that more significant increases could emerge in the coming weeks if global oil prices continue to climb.

Despite the recent uptick, petrol and diesel prices remain considerably lower than the levels recorded at the same time last year, offering some relief to motorists.

The price of crude oil has surged by approximately 10% since the United States and Israel launched bombing operations against Iran last weekend, sparking renewed concerns about rising global energy costs.

As of now, pump price increases across most filling stations remain modest. The average price for petrol in Northern Ireland stands at 126.2 pence per litre, while diesel averages 133.8 pence per litre.

For context, diesel prices peaked at nearly 200 pence per litre during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, before gradually declining over the past two years.

Nevertheless, localized reports of long queues at some filling stations have emerged this week amid fears of a sharp price spike. Certain major fuel providers have already increased their per-litre prices by around 10 pence.

Meanwhile, petrol station workers in the Ireland have reportedly faced verbal abuse from frustrated motorists, according to Peter Burke, as consumers react to rising fuel costs.

Global wholesale prices have shown even sharper movements. Between last Friday and Thursday night, diesel wholesale prices jumped by 48%, while petrol wholesale prices rose by 15%.

However, Michelle Kelly, Head of Transport at the Consumer Council, noted that pump prices typically react more slowly than wholesale market changes.

“There is usually a lag between movements in the wholesale market and the prices motorists see at the pump,” Kelly said, adding that supply chain dynamics often delay the full impact.

She also highlighted a significant variation in retail prices, with as much as an 18-pence difference between the lowest and highest petrol prices currently available.

Concerns remain that escalating tensions in the Middle East — particularly as several major oil-producing regions face missile attacks from Iran — could eventually push fuel prices sharply higher.

However, Kelly emphasized that there is currently no clear evidence suggesting a return to the extreme price levels seen in 2022.

“I don’t have a crystal ball,” she said, “but the oil price would need to rise significantly and remain elevated for a sustained period to produce the kind of dramatic increases we saw back in 2022.”

She added that some increase in pump prices appears inevitable in the near term, though it remains uncertain whether prices will approach the historic highs recorded during the Ukraine conflict.