Rohingya Insurgency: A Struggle for Survival Amidst Statelessness and Conflict

In July, Rafiq, a 32-year-old Rohingya refugee, slipped out of the world's largest refugee settlement in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. Crossing the border into Myanmar on a small boat, he entered a ruinous civil war in a country he had fled in 2017. Driven by a desire to reclaim his homeland, Rafiq, shot in the leg during the conflict, lamented, “There is no other way.”

The Rohingya, a predominantly Muslim ethnic group and the world’s largest stateless population, began fleeing to Bangladesh in 2016 to escape what the United Nations has termed genocide at the hands of Myanmar's military. A long-standing rebellion in Myanmar intensified after the military coup in 2021, drawing Rohingya fighters into the fray.

Rising Insurgency in Refugee Camps

In the refugee camps of Cox’s Bazar, militant recruitment and violence have surged. Between 3,000 and 5,000 fighters have been recruited, according to humanitarian reports and interviews with Rohingya fighters and aid workers. Many are drawn by promises of financial support, ideological fervor, and the hope of Myanmar citizenship. Others, including children as young as 13, have been coerced or forcibly conscripted.

Two major militant groups, the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), are now active in the camps. Though these groups lack widespread support, their presence has created instability, with violence reaching its highest levels since the camps' establishment in 2017.

Conflict in Rakhine State

Rohingya fighters, armed and trained by Myanmar’s junta, are engaged in battles against the Arakan Army (AA), a Rakhine ethnic militia. Despite their alliances with former oppressors, the Rohingya see the Rakhine community, backed by the AA, as their main adversary.

The battle for Maungdaw in Rakhine has become a focal point, with Rohingya fighters using guerrilla tactics to slow the AA’s advance. However, the conflict has further complicated efforts to repatriate refugees. Bangladesh’s attempts to mediate between the Rohingya and the AA have failed, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

Life in the Camps

Inside Cox’s Bazar, conditions are dire. Violence disrupts humanitarian efforts, and the camp’s deep poverty fosters recruitment into armed groups. International aid is dwindling, with projections suggesting funding may run out within a decade. Without economic opportunities, the camp’s youth face bleak futures, fueling fears of further radicalization.

Wendy McCance of the Norwegian Refugee Council emphasized the urgency of providing livelihood opportunities to prevent young men from being drawn into organized groups for survival.

For refugees like Sharit Ullah, who escaped from Maungdaw, daily life is a struggle for safety and sustenance. “We have nothing here,” he said, surrounded by the chaos of camp life. “We live in fear.”

The Fight for Identity

For many Rohingya, the lure of Myanmar citizenship outweighs the risks of combat. Abu Afna, a fighter, explained, “We didn’t go for the money. We wanted the card, nationality.” However, the path to citizenship remains fraught, as Myanmar’s junta offers only empty promises while continuing to exploit the Rohingya for its military campaigns.

Bangladesh’s Dilemma

Bangladesh, hosting over a million refugees, faces mounting pressures. Some officials privately view armed struggle as the only way to achieve repatriation, while others warn of the destabilizing effects of growing militancy.

The future of the Rohingya remains uncertain, caught between the violence of Myanmar, the instability of the refugee camps, and the waning resources of international aid. As their struggle continues, the world watches, yet solutions remain elusive.