French PM Michel Barnier Poised to Resign After Confidence Vote Defeat

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is expected to resign on Friday following a historic confidence vote loss, marking France's second major political crisis within six months. The government was toppled after far-right and leftist lawmakers joined forces to reject Barnier’s administration, which had been grappling with a contentious budget plan.

Barnier, who served as the European Union's Brexit negotiator before taking office, will become the shortest-serving prime minister in modern French history. This marks the first time a French government has lost a confidence vote since Georges Pompidou’s administration in 1962.

Budget Controversy Sparks Political Fallout

The crisis was triggered by Barnier’s decision to push through a controversial budget aimed at cutting €60 billion ($63.07 billion) to address a growing deficit. The move, executed without a parliamentary vote, drew sharp criticism from both the far-left and far-right opposition. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally accused the budget of unfairly burdening working-class citizens.

The resignation caps weeks of escalating tension, further undermining President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership. Macron’s earlier decision to call a snap election ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympics is now viewed as a strategic misstep, leading to a fragmented parliament and weakened executive authority.

Uncertain Path Forward

Macron, whose mandate runs until 2027, faces mounting public and political pressure to step down, though constitutional safeguards prevent his removal. France now risks ending the year without a stable government or a finalized 2025 budget. While constitutional measures can avert a U.S.-style government shutdown, the prolonged instability is unsettling financial markets. This week, French borrowing costs briefly surpassed those of Greece, reflecting investor unease.

Broader Implications for Europe

The turmoil comes at a critical moment for the European Union, already strained by the collapse of Germany’s coalition government. Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is set to visit Paris this Saturday for the unveiling of the renovated Notre Dame Cathedral. Macron is reportedly racing to name a successor before Trump’s arrival.

Any new prime minister will face formidable challenges, including navigating a deeply divided parliament to secure the passage of critical legislation such as the 2025 budget. A new parliamentary election cannot be held before July, leaving France in a prolonged period of political and economic uncertainty.

The situation underscores the fragility of France’s current political landscape and raises questions about the country's capacity to navigate the dual pressures of domestic reform and its role within the EU amidst global turbulence.