Is Bangladesh’s Interim Government Facing Collapse Amid Mounting Challenges?

 Bangladesh’s interim government, which assumed power after ousting Sheikh Hasina’s administration, appears to be struggling under the weight of a deepening economic crisis and escalating internal conflicts. With the situation becoming increasingly unmanageable, the Muhammad Yunus-led government has sought assistance from India, despite ongoing tensions in bilateral relations. The urgent request includes 50,000 tons of rice at concessional rates to combat acute food shortages and inflationary pressures.

Bangladesh’s food grain reserves have dwindled to 1.148 million tons, with rice stocks at a critical low of 742,000 tons. As a nation heavily reliant on rice consumption, the government is now compelled to seek solutions from India. The crisis is further exacerbated by disruptions in electricity supplies from Indian companies, reduced foreign investment in key sectors, and declining export revenues. Additionally, internal security concerns and external threats along the Myanmar border are intensifying the country's predicament.

A significant external pressure point is the advance of Myanmar's Arakan Army, which has seized Maungdaw, a strategically vital town near the Bangladesh border, from the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military). Reports suggest that the Arakan Army now controls approximately 271 kilometers of Myanmar’s border adjoining Bangladesh. The militant group has even encroached upon parts of Teknaf, bringing them dangerously close to Saint Martin's Island.

Speculations regarding India’s support for the Arakan Army have raised concerns in the region. Allegations suggest that India may have provided weapons, intelligence, and training to the group to counter China’s growing influence in Myanmar, particularly in the wake of Beijing’s backing of both the Myanmar junta and rebel factions. These claims gained traction following reports of interactions between Indian lawmakers and Arakan Army leaders as part of the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. However, India has not officially acknowledged these allegations and maintains its stance on the necessity of restoring democracy in Myanmar.

The Arakan Army, a Buddhist militant group based in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, has steadily expanded its control over the region. While it claims to fight for the autonomy of the Rakhine people, the group’s actions—such as displacing thousands of Rohingya—have raised critical questions. Since 2017, more than a million Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh to escape violence in Rakhine. Accusations that the Rohingya aligned with the Tatmadaw during military offensives have further complicated the situation.

The group has also accused jihadist factions along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border of targeting religious minorities, including Hindus and Buddhists. Allegedly, some of these factions have links to Jamaat-e-Islami and Al-Qaeda, contributing to a volatile situation that Bangladesh is accused of failing to adequately address.

Amid this crisis, there are signs that Bangladesh may deepen its ties with Pakistan, a shift that could have significant geopolitical ramifications. Additionally, unrest emanating from the Myanmar border poses risks to India’s northeastern states, potentially compelling Indian intervention.

While the Arakan Army insists it is not opposed to the Rohingya, its actions have led to mass displacements and heightened tensions in the region. The broader instability, coupled with Bangladesh’s domestic challenges and the potential for increased Chinese influence in Myanmar, underscores the urgent need for regional cooperation and strategic dialogue to address these multifaceted issues.

As Bangladesh navigates these turbulent times, its political and economic future remains uncertain, with potential implications for the wider South Asian region.