Syrian Civil War: A Renewed Front Amid Regional Turmoil

While Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon dominates headlines, another critical Middle Eastern conflict—the Syrian civil war—has resurfaced with significant developments. Despite having raged for over a decade, the Syrian conflict has recently seen rebel forces make a decisive push, particularly in Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city.

On Saturday, rebel groups captured significant portions of Aleppo for the first time since 2016. This marked their most notable advance since they were ousted by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces, supported by Iran and Russia, nearly eight years ago. According to human rights organizations, the recent offensive has resulted in approximately 277 casualties, including soldiers and civilians.

The Resurgence of Rebel Forces

The reemergence of rebel activity is attributed to shifting dynamics in the region. Analysts suggest that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strategic maneuvers have played a pivotal role in reinvigorating the rebellion. As Iran and Russia, Assad's principal backers, are preoccupied with their respective conflicts—Russia in Ukraine and Iran in its escalating tensions with Israel—Erdogan has capitalized on their diminished presence in Syria.

Reports indicate that Russia has redeployed much of its military equipment, including air defense systems and fighter jets, from Syria to Ukraine. This vacuum has given the rebels an opening to reclaim Aleppo, a city of immense symbolic and strategic importance.

Russia has labeled the rebel offensive a violation of Syria’s sovereignty and hinted at potential military intervention. However, the situation on the ground remains fluid, with Turkey's involvement emboldening the rebels.

Erdogan’s Role in Supporting Rebel Groups

Experts argue that Erdogan has long supported Sunni jihadist groups in Syria, further intensifying the conflict. Simone Ledeen, a U.S.-based Middle East analyst, asserts that Turkey’s backing of these groups underscores Erdogan’s ambition to position himself as a leader of the Sunni Muslim world.

Ledeen also highlighted critical questions for the international community, particularly the U.S., as it navigates its policy in Syria. These include the future of the Assad regime in the event of Iran’s diminishing influence and Russia’s response to Turkey’s growing power in northern Syria.

“Russia seeks to preserve Assad’s regime as a strategic ally, while Turkey’s actions suggest aspirations of regional dominance,” Ledeen said. She added that the situation could become increasingly volatile, particularly if Israel enters the equation.

Israel’s Potential Role in the Conflict

According to Ledeen, Israel could become a decisive player in the Syrian civil war. If Iran’s influence wanes, Russian President Vladimir Putin might turn to Israel to counterbalance Turkey’s rising prominence. Such a development could alter the geopolitical landscape in the Mediterranean.

The conflict has also raised questions about NATO's internal dynamics, as Turkey’s actions in Syria often diverge from the alliance’s broader objectives. “Syria has become a battleground for competing interests involving Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the West. The U.S. must take a definitive stance,” Ledeen emphasized.

A Complex Shia-Sunni Struggle

The Syrian civil war, often framed as a struggle for democracy, is deeply rooted in sectarian divisions. Assad, an Alawite—a sect linked to Shiite Islam—has received steadfast support from Iran, the region’s Shia stronghold. Meanwhile, Sunni rebel groups are backed by Turkey and Western allies.

This conflict is an extension of the historical rivalry between Shia and Sunni factions vying for dominance in the Islamic world. Assad’s Alawite community, which fled persecution centuries ago, remains a focal point of this sectarian divide.

As the war evolves, it underscores the broader geopolitical and religious struggles shaping the Middle East. The renewed rebel offensive in Aleppo could significantly alter the trajectory of the Syrian civil war, with far-reaching implications for regional and global stability.