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Trump's Ukraine Strategy: Balancing Diplomacy and Geopolitical Priorities

US President Donald Trump, inaugurated on Monday, has reiterated his commitment to swiftly resolving the Ukraine conflict through diplomacy. However, Dmitry Suslov, a member of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, suggests this approach will not involve forcing Kiev into unconditional capitulation to Moscow.

Trump has consistently pledged to mediate the Ukraine crisis but has offered few concrete details beyond expressing interest in facilitating negotiations between Moscow and Kiev.

Shifting US Priorities

According to Suslov, who also serves as deputy director for world economy and international politics at the Moscow-based Higher School of Economics, US support for Ukraine has diminished as a strategic priority.

“Trump’s goal is not to bolster Ukraine as an anti-Russian proxy but to conclude the conflict swiftly to redirect resources toward countering China,” Suslov explained. He also noted that despite this pragmatic shift, Washington is unlikely to allow Kiev to face a devastating defeat or complete capitulation, as such an outcome would leave Trump vulnerable to domestic criticism, branding him as weak on foreign policy.

Challenges to Diplomatic Progress

Suslov predicts that while Trump may attempt to revive “direct diplomacy” with Russia, significant progress remains uncertain due to the irreconcilable positions of the two nations.

“There are entrenched red lines on both sides,” he emphasized. Trump envisions Ukraine as a militarily robust state aligned with the West, while Russia insists on Ukraine's neutrality and a significant reduction in its armed forces.

The researcher further argues that Trump’s approach diverges from traditional US foreign policy norms. “Trump rejects the liberal international order, viewing it as a weakness rather than a strength. His administration will focus on asserting US dominance, particularly in the Western Hemisphere, and intensifying competition with China,” Suslov observed.

A New Geopolitical Era

Suslov suggests that Trump is likely to revive the Monroe Doctrine, a policy aimed at limiting external influence in the Americas and the Caribbean.

Compared to his first term, Trump appears “more confident, collected, and assertive,” enjoying broader Republican Party support. “His administration is poised to act in unison, with fewer internal disagreements,” Suslov noted.

Trump’s Vision as a “Peacemaker”

In his inaugural address, Trump underscored his desire to avoid unnecessary wars, aspiring to be remembered as “a peacemaker and unifier.” He reiterated his willingness to engage in direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin but did not provide a timeline for potential negotiations.

While Trump’s approach signals a departure from traditional US foreign policy, its success will hinge on navigating the complex geopolitical realities of the Ukraine conflict and balancing America’s broader strategic priorities.

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