U.S. Markets in Turmoil as Recession Fears Grow

The U.S. stock markets have faced a week of steep losses as concerns over tariffs and trade wars escalate. Monday saw a significant downturn, and the sell-off has continued, with analysts warning that the worst may not be over.

JP Morgan Sounds the Alarm on Recession Risks

JP Morgan Chase, the largest bank in America, has issued a stark warning about the possibility of a recession. According to the bank’s Chief Economist, the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 has surged to 40%, and it could rise to 50% next month if President Donald Trump follows through on his tariff plans. Trump has vowed to impose new tariffs starting April 2nd, targeting nations that levy tariffs on American goods—policies he refers to as "reciprocal tariffs."

If these measures are implemented, they could severely disrupt global trade, increasing the risk of an economic downturn. JP Morgan’s warning signals growing concern among financial institutions over the administration’s aggressive trade policies.

Declining Confidence in Trump's Economic Leadership

Public sentiment on Trump’s handling of the economy has also taken a hit. A new poll released yesterday shows that 56% of respondents disapprove of his economic policies—a record high. This is a stark contrast to his first term when economic confidence was one of his strongest assets, with disapproval rates consistently below 50%.

Just 50 days into his second term, the economic landscape has shifted dramatically. Tariff threats, government job cuts, and an overall negative market sentiment are contributing to fears of an impending recession.

Soaring Government Spending Despite Job Cuts

Adding to the concerns, new figures from the U.S. Treasury Department reveal that government spending in February 2025—the first full month under Trump’s second-term policies—reached an all-time high of $63 billion. Meanwhile, government earnings stood at just $296 billion, forcing the administration to borrow $37 billion to cover the deficit.

These budget deficits are not new, but what is alarming is that they continue to rise despite drastic job cuts. Business magnate Elon Musk, now deeply involved in the administration, has led extensive layoffs—over 20,000 government employees have been fired, and contracts have been slashed. Yet, despite these cost-cutting measures, federal spending has hit record levels.

Analysts suggest that rising costs, including higher interest payments on national debt and increasing healthcare expenses, may be offsetting any savings from job cuts. The long-term impact of these measures remains unclear, but the immediate effect has been rising public debt and growing fiscal concerns.

Will the U.S. Enter a Recession?

The critical question now is whether the American people will give Trump and Musk time to implement their economic strategies or if declining public confidence will push the U.S. into a recession.

The coming months will be crucial. If trade wars intensify and consumer confidence continues to decline, the economy may struggle to regain stability. As the situation unfolds, all eyes will be on the administration’s next moves—and whether they can prevent a downturn that seems increasingly inevitable.