New Delhi — Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently made a bold and unequivocal statement in Bikaner, underscoring a dramatic shift in India’s stance on the Indus Waters Treaty.
“Pakistan ko Bharat ke haq ka paani nahi milega. Bhartiyon ke khoon se khelna Pakistan ko ab mehnga padega,” he declared, signaling that the long-standing treaty will remain suspended until further notice.
The announcement comes amid growing tensions between the two nations in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, which the Prime Minister clarified is “not over, just paused.” While hostilities on the ground may have temporarily ceased, Pakistan finds itself in an increasingly precarious position — not militarily, but over water.
A Strategic Shift
India’s decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance marks a significant turning point in South Asia’s geopolitical narrative. Originally signed in 1960 by then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan — under the auspices of the World Bank — the treaty has long been viewed by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) as a diplomatic compromise detrimental to India’s interests.
The move to scrap the treaty had previously surfaced following critical junctures in India-Pakistan relations — notably after the Kargil War under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and after the Uri and Pulwama attacks during Narendra Modi’s first term. However, it was the recent terror strike in Pahalgam that served as the catalyst for India to formally suspend the agreement.
“Tum hamara paani band kar doge, hum tumhari saans band kar denge,” warned Pakistan’s Director General of Inter-Services Public Relations (DG ISPR), Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry — an open threat reminiscent of extremist rhetoric previously associated with Hafiz Saeed.
“If you stop our waters, we’ll choke your breath,” he reiterated, reflecting the acute pressure mounting within Pakistan's political and military establishments.
India’s official response has been resolute: “Blood and water cannot flow together.” The government maintains that the treaty will remain suspended unless Pakistan takes credible, verifiable action against cross-border terrorism — a prospect New Delhi views as highly unlikely.
Pakistan Reacts
The implications of India’s decision have sent shockwaves through Islamabad. Senator Syed Ali Zafar of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) termed India’s move a “water bomb” and warned of catastrophic consequences if the crisis is not immediately addressed.
“We will starve to death if we don’t solve this water crisis immediately. Indus Basin is our lifeline. Three-fourths of our water comes from here. Nine out of ten people rely on the Indus Basin to live. Ninety per cent of our crops depend on it. All our dams and infrastructure are built around it,” he said in a passionate address to the Pakistan Assembly.
With bilateral talks stalled and India rebuffing Pakistan’s diplomatic overtures, Islamabad has escalated the matter internationally, labeling India’s actions an “act of war.” In a highly inflammatory statement, Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto threatened:
“Either our water or their (India’s) blood will flow in the Indus.”
India’s Calculated Response
Behind the rhetoric lies a well-calculated strategy. India currently possesses very limited water storage capacity on the three western rivers — the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — allocated to Pakistan under the treaty. Existing hydroelectric projects are run-of-the-river, with minimal storage. However, India’s ability to hold water for 2–3 days through full-capacity reservoirs has already caused alarming fluctuations in Pakistan’s water supply, triggering fears of short-term droughts and floods.
This strategic uncertainty is set to deepen in 2026 with the commissioning of the Pakal Dul Dam, India’s first significant storage project on a tributary of the Chenab in Kishtwar. Standing 167 meters tall, the dam is expected to store 0.1 million acre-feet (MAF) of water — a figure that could potentially increase now that the treaty is suspended. Earlier this month, the Modi government approved the installation of critical transmission infrastructure to fast-track the project.
Additionally, India is accelerating other hydroelectric ventures including Kishanganga and Ratle, transforming them from energy assets into strategic tools of geopolitical influence.
The Kishanganga project, inaugurated in 2018, diverts water from the Jhelum via a 23-km tunnel in Bandipora. On the same day, Prime Minister Modi also laid the foundation stone for Pakal Dul, a 1,000 MW storage-based hydropower initiative.
The 850 MW Ratle project in J&K’s Kishtwar district has also crossed a significant milestone. With the successful diversion of the Chenab through tunnels, India has begun dam excavation, brushing aside Pakistan’s objections on spillway design and drawdown levels.
The Bigger Picture
Pakistan’s concern is not just about water — it is about leverage. The country now finds itself powerless to stop India from advancing its hydro projects in the disputed regions of Jammu & Kashmir.
India, for its part, has maintained that the treaty is outdated given changing demographics and geographical realities.
The last bilateral engagement under the treaty took place in June last year, when a Pakistani delegation visited dam sites in Kishtwar. Since then, the diplomatic channel has remained largely dormant.
With the treaty effectively shelved, India is no longer obligated to heed Pakistani objections on international platforms regarding Kishanganga, Ratle, or Pakal Dul. The cumulative effect of these projects provides India with both geopolitical leverage and strategic depth — signaling a new doctrine in India’s water diplomacy vis-Ã -vis Pakistan.
As the situation evolves, the next few months could prove to be critical. With tensions rising, New Delhi remains on alert, anticipating potential retaliatory actions from Islamabad.
For now, the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 stands suspended, possibly forever — ushering in a new chapter in one of the world’s most complex bilateral relationships, where rivers may become as contested as borders.
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