China Steps In as Russia Falters: Cuba’s Economic Crisis Spurs Strategic Realignments

 JATIBONICO, CUBA – In the heart of Cuba’s rural interior, where horse-drawn carriages outnumber cars and blackouts darken homes for hours, the silence surrounding Jatibonico’s once-bustling sugar mill speaks volumes. The mill—once the largest in the country—has remained idle, stripped of power, fuel, and essential components. A highly anticipated revival promised two years ago by Russian firm Progress Agro remains unrealized. For many locals, the only question that lingers is: “When are the Russians coming?”

Yet, while Russian promises continue to stall, a quiet but decisive shift is underway—driven by China. On the outskirts of town, bulldozers are clearing cane fields to make way for a new solar park, part of an ambitious Chinese-financed project to build 55 such facilities across the island in 2025 alone.

Cuba, now mired in one of its worst economic crises in decades, is experiencing shortages of food, fuel, and medicine, exacerbated by renewed U.S. sanctions under President Donald Trump’s second term. Against this backdrop, a Reuters ground-level assessment reveals that while Russia's support has largely failed to materialize, China is delivering on a scale and timeline unmatched by Havana’s traditional allies.

China's Growing Footprint

Beijing’s involvement is timely. In February, President Miguel Díaz-Canel inaugurated a new solar park near Havana, with Chinese Ambassador Hua Xin in attendance. The project, hailed as an act of "brotherly collaboration," is one of several initiatives aimed at easing Cuba’s severe energy shortfalls. The national grid has collapsed four times in the past year alone.

According to state utility UNE, existing and newly completed solar parks are producing close to 400 megawatts (MW), a third of the island’s daytime electricity deficit. That figure is projected to grow to 1,100 MW by year-end, largely thanks to China’s efforts.

China has committed to installing a total of 92 solar parks by 2028, amounting to 2,000 MW—an energy revolution that could cover nearly two-thirds of Cuba’s current electricity demand. The scope of cooperation extends further, including modernization of the entire electrical grid.

Meanwhile, at the port of Mariel—Cuba’s main shipping hub—activity from Chinese freighters has surged since mid-2024. Arrivals from Shanghai and Tianjin have offloaded solar panels, construction materials, and transport fuel to ensure the goods reach their rural destinations. The effects are being felt across the countryside. As truck driver Noel Gonzalez put it, “The Chinese check every liter of fuel, every kilometer we drive. They’re serious.”

Still, despite China's tangible delivery, experts like Fulton Armstrong, former U.S. National Intelligence Officer for Latin America, caution that such aid may not be sufficient to offset the damage from renewed U.S. sanctions. “China’s investments are a big benefit, but they are not a magic solution,” he said.

Russia’s Promises vs. Reality

In contrast to China’s execution, Russia’s posturing has largely remained symbolic. In 2023, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko pledged sweeping support for Cuba, inaugurating the reopening of the country’s largest steel mill and signing a slew of cooperation agreements. Yet by 2024, only 4,200 metric tons of steel had been produced—far below the promised 62,000.

Locals around the steel mill say it has remained idle for months. "Talk is cheap," remarked Esperanza Perez, a bakery worker living nearby. "When the mill runs, we hear it. But now? Nothing."

Similarly, plans to establish a Russian retail presence through the highly publicized "Rusmarket" chain have been indefinitely delayed. An ambitious proposal to rehabilitate the beachfront Tarará community appears stalled, with the area largely abandoned. Even a restoration agreement for Havana’s historic Santo Angel building has yet to materialize.

Russia has delivered limited supplies of oil and wheat, and it continues to support Cuban tourism. However, with Moscow’s focus fixed on the Ukraine war and a reluctance to deepen its financial exposure in crisis-hit Cuba, its long-standing partnership appears increasingly hollow.

A 2025 plan announced by Chernyshenko to subsidize $1 billion in Russian business investments remains mostly on paper. “It is impossible to achieve things immediately, as if by magic,” he told reporters in Moscow.

Geopolitical Underpinnings

Cuba joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2018, and Beijing has since expanded its investments in Cuban transport, port infrastructure, and telecommunications. Yet, this increasing economic closeness also comes with geopolitical consequences.

Amid U.S. allegations of a Chinese intelligence facility operating in Cuba—claims both Havana and Beijing deny—the nature of this partnership is drawing attention in Washington. Analysts point out that Cuba is becoming a strategic chessboard where China, Russia, and the U.S. are pursuing divergent agendas.

Looking Ahead

While China’s support may not resolve all of Cuba’s structural woes, it currently represents the most active and effective external partnership on the island. In contrast, Russia’s engagements, though extensive in announcements, have delivered little beyond fuel and food supplies.

The disparity is not lost on Cubans. With solar panels now arriving in rural towns, the hum of new infrastructure is becoming the real symbol of hope—not the idle smokestacks of Soviet-era industry. As Cuba struggles to emerge from an era of profound economic hardship, its future may depend not just on new partnerships, but on which partners show up—and deliver.