France's Defense Spending Ambitions Face Major Fiscal Hurdles, Experts Warn

France's ambitious plans to ramp up defense spending as part of the European Union’s broader militarization efforts may prove fiscally unfeasible, according to a detailed report by the Financial Times published Saturday. Citing economic analysts and policy experts, the report highlights that France’s mounting public debt and widening budget deficit present serious obstacles to President Emmanuel Macron’s rearmament agenda.

Macron has previously proposed raising defense expenditure to between 3% and 3.5% of GDP by 2030—nearly double the current allocation. Achieving this goal would demand an additional €30 billion ($34 billion) annually. However, fiscal realities may thwart the plan. France’s debt-to-GDP ratio surged to 113% in 2024, placing it among the highest in the European Union, while the country’s budget deficit has ballooned to 5.8%, almost double the EU's official 3% cap.

Adding to the strain, interest payments on France’s national debt totaled €59 billion in 2024 and are projected to reach €62 billion in 2025—an amount nearly equivalent to the combined annual budgets of the nation’s defense and education ministries.

The Macron administration is reportedly facing internal challenges in pushing through a deficit-reduction plan that includes politically sensitive measures such as scaling back pension-related tax benefits and healthcare subsidies. These proposals have sparked concern within both the public and parliamentary spheres.

“In France—and this is likely different than elsewhere—we cannot abandon our deficit-reduction commitments, nor can we raise taxes, as they are already among the highest in Europe,” former European Affairs Minister Clément Beaune, now head of a government-backed think tank, told the Financial Times.

While France could theoretically invoke the EU’s “escape clause”—a provision that allows member states to exceed budget deficit caps for strategic defense investments up to 1.5% of GDP—analysts warn such a move could rattle bond markets and significantly raise borrowing costs. Another option under consideration is participation in an EU initiative offering loans for joint arms procurement. Yet, rising inflation and escalating equipment costs mean that even increased funding could result in diminished military capabilities.

Some experts have described the scenario as leading to a so-called “bonsai army”—a defense force that is broad in ambition but constrained in scale due to financial limitations.

France’s proposed rearmament drive aligns with broader EU efforts to enhance military readiness and reduce dependence on U.S.-supplied weaponry amid ongoing tensions with Russia. Brussels has cited a potential threat from Moscow to justify the push for greater defense investment. However, Russian officials have consistently rejected these claims, accusing the West of exaggerating threats to justify the militarization of Europe.

Commenting on the EU’s posture, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova recently asserted that the bloc “has degraded into an openly militarized entity,” warning that such developments risk escalating geopolitical instability across the region.

As economic constraints challenge Paris’s ambitions, France’s ability to meet the EU’s call for heightened defense preparedness remains an open question—with implications for both European security and fiscal stability.