Sharp Decline in Pakistan’s Indus Water Flow Amid India’s Measures to Curb Western River Supply

 Official Pakistani data reveals a significant decline in the flow of water from Pakistan’s dams in the Indus basin, attributed to India’s recent actions to regulate the western rivers. There has been an approximate 15% reduction in the volume of water released from Pakistan’s reservoirs compared to the same period last year.

On June 5, Pakistan’s Punjab province recorded a release of 1.24 lakh cusecs, down from 1.44 lakh cusecs on the same date in 2024. The water level at the Tarbela Dam in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has dropped to 1,465 metres—only marginally above the dead storage level of 1,402 metres. Similarly, Chasma Dam on the Indus in Punjab has a level of 644 metres, just above its dead level of 638 metres, while Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River in Mirpur stands at 1,163 metres, not far from its dead level of 1,050 metres.

The term "dead level" refers to the point below which water cannot be drained from a reservoir using gravity alone, thus rendering it practically unusable without mechanical intervention.

A senior Pakistani government source warned of an escalating crisis, particularly during the latter part of the Kharif season, which spans from June to September. Although the arrival of the monsoon may bring some relief, Punjab’s Kharif crop is expected to suffer severe consequences.

Pakistan is already anticipating a 21% water deficit during the early Kharif season, which ends on June 10. The situation is especially critical at Marala in Sialkot, where the average discharge from the Chenab River plummeted to 3,064 cusecs on June 5, down sharply from 26,645 cusecs on May 28.

Exacerbating the crisis, a severe heatwave is forecasted to begin on June 8, with temperatures expected to rise 5 to 7°C above seasonal norms across central and upper Punjab, Islamabad, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan.

Last month, Pakistani authorities described the shortage of water in the Chenab as a "crisis caused by Indian short supplies," warning that it would severely affect agricultural output during the Kharif season. The government also characterized India's actions as an “act of war,” cautioning that water scarcity could become a major trigger for future conflicts between the two nations.

Pakistan has reportedly sent four diplomatic communications to India, urging a reconsideration of its decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty. However, India has reiterated that the treaty remains in abeyance, emphasizing that “water and blood cannot flow together.”

On May 27, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that the people of India are entitled to their fair share of water. “Shouldn’t they get what rightfully belongs to them? And I’ve barely begun. We've merely opened the gates a little to clean the dams and remove decades of accumulated silt,” the Prime Minister said during an address in Gujarat.

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 with the World Bank as guarantor, apportioned the waters of six rivers between the two countries. India retained rights to the three eastern rivers—Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej—while Pakistan was allotted the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. While each nation was allowed limited usage of the other's river waters for specific purposes, including run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects, the agreement imposed restrictions on the construction of storage facilities.

In his remarks, Prime Minister Modi also criticized the historical terms of the treaty. “The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960. If you study its clauses, they’re shocking. Desilting of major dams in Jammu and Kashmir was prohibited, and the gates for cleaning weren’t opened for 60 years. As a result, reservoirs that should have operated at full capacity were reduced to merely 2%–3%,” he said.

As diplomatic tensions rise, the fate of millions dependent on the Indus basin's water resources hangs in the balance, and the region's longstanding water-sharing accord appears increasingly fragile.