Trump Pushes Republican-Led Redistricting, Raising Fears of Long-Term House Dominance

Washington, August 25 — Former President Donald Trump is urging Republican-controlled states to aggressively redraw congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, a move that analysts say could cement a Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives for decades.

Republicans currently hold a narrow 219-212 House majority, and Trump is determined to break the historical trend of sitting presidents losing House seats in midterms — a fate he suffered in 2018 and Democratic President Joe Biden faced in 2022. His push has begun with Texas, where the GOP-controlled legislature recently approved a map designed to secure five additional Republican seats.

Democrats, led by California, have threatened to retaliate with their own partisan redistricting. The practice, known as gerrymandering, has long been part of American politics but has become far more sophisticated with the use of modern data analytics.

Despite Democratic threats, Republicans hold a structural advantage: they control both the legislatures and governorships of 23 states, compared with 15 for Democrats. Demographic shifts are also expected to work in their favor, with analysts predicting as many as 11 new House seats could be added in Republican-leaning Southern and Western states following the 2030 Census.

The intensifying redistricting battle has raised alarms about a new era of entrenched partisan control. “Every time we break a norm in politics now, that norm never comes back,” said Adam Kinzinger, a former Republican congressman who lost his Illinois seat after redistricting. “It’ll be an avalanche of constant redistricting. I worry about that.”

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted this month found that most Americans oppose partisan gerrymandering, with many expressing concern that it undermines democracy itself. Nonpartisan analysts currently rate only three dozen of the 435 House districts as competitive in 2026, pushing the real contests into party primaries that tend to elevate more partisan candidates less inclined toward compromise.

“If Republicans build institutional advantages, whether through fundraising or gerrymandering, they will be creating a lock on the House. And that’s not good for democracy,” warned Thomas Kahn, acting director of American University’s Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies.

Demographic trends add further complexity. In Texas, nearly 97% of population growth since 2020 has come from Hispanic, Black, or Asian communities. In Florida, these groups account for more than three-quarters of new residents. Democrats argue Republican maps dilute the electoral power of minority communities by redrawing Hispanic-majority districts to include larger numbers of white conservative voters.

At the same time, Republicans point to shifting voter patterns, with Trump improving his performance among Hispanic voters by 14 percentage points in the 2024 election compared with 2020, though he still lost the group overall to then-Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

The heightened partisan struggle comes amid growing turmoil in Congress. Several moderate Republicans have exited politics under pressure from Trump and his allies, deepening the chamber’s ideological divide. “We have major issues to solve. We’re not solving them,” said former Representative John Duarte, who lost his California seat in 2024.

As redistricting battles unfold, critics warn of further erosion of competitive elections, leaving control of the House increasingly determined not by voters, but by political cartography.