Kerala Local Body Election Results: The long-held assumption that any electoral gain by the BJP would inevitably come at the expense of the UDF has now been rendered irrelevant.

Thiruvananthapuram: For all three political fronts in Kerala, victory in the local body elections was not merely desirable—it was strategically indispensable, each for its own reasons.

For the Left Democratic Front (LDF), it was about paving the way for an unprecedented third consecutive term in power. For the United Democratic Front (UDF), the stakes were no less than returning to governance after prolonged years in opposition. For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the objective was to demonstrate that its gains—particularly the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat—were no political accident, but a sign of sustained expansion.

As the LDF faltered, the UDF emerged with a decisive and authoritative victory. Simultaneously, the BJP advanced another step by wresting control of the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, marking a significant milestone in its Kerala trajectory.

With the Assembly elections only months away, the central question is whether the local body results will serve as a political barometer for the upcoming contest. Traditionally, local elections in Kerala have favoured the Left. This time, that pattern was decisively broken. Following its emphatic performance in the Lok Sabha elections and victories in most by-elections—excluding Chelakkara—the UDF views the local body success as a clear signal that it is edging closer to reclaiming state power.

For the LDF, success in the local polls was meant to be the launchpad for retaining power for a third term. Instead, visible cracks have emerged. After setbacks in the Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M) had earlier attributed losses in 2016 and 2021 to the consolidation of anti-BJP votes around the Congress at the national level. The Left’s strategy was to reverse parliamentary losses in the subsequent local elections and replicate that momentum in the Assembly polls that follow. Welfare measures, populist announcements, and governance-driven outreach were all part of this carefully crafted game plan.

However, rising anti-incumbency sentiment and controversies such as the alleged Sabarimala gold theft cast a long shadow over Left ambitions. The erosion of the LDF’s hold even in traditional strongholds like Kollam stands as clear evidence of growing public disenchantment. The UDF effectively weaponised issues such as the hunger strike agitation, the Sabarimala gold controversy, and allegations surrounding monthly payments. At the same time, it amplified the narrative of an alleged tacit understanding between the CPI(M) and the BJP—reinforced by the BJP’s victory in Thrissur.

Claims that the state government had quietly signed on to the PM SHRI scheme were projected as further proof of this perceived proximity, a narrative that appears to have resonated with sections of the electorate. Meanwhile, the CPI(M)’s shift away from overt minority appeasement towards a softer majoritarian outreach—carefully calibrated to avoid alienating any community while maintaining a respectful distance from religious leadership—also found a measure of public acceptance.

For the BJP, the objective went beyond being a mere “third force” in a triangular contest. The party sought to establish itself as an equal stakeholder alongside the LDF and UDF by steadily increasing its vote share. In the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, where the BJP had finished second twice before, the third attempt coincided with strong anti-incumbency sentiments, enabling it to convert discontent into electoral gains.

Buoyed by its successes in the Thrissur Lok Sabha constituency and the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, the BJP now draws renewed energy to target at least 25 Assembly seats. Its capture of 26 gram panchayats, two municipalities, and one corporation underscores the deepening roots of organisational politics in the state. The long-held assumption that BJP gains come primarily at the expense of the UDF now appears outdated; voting patterns indicate that both LDF and UDF vote bases are contributing to the BJP’s growth.

For the UDF, the clarity that a third consecutive term in opposition could lead to political implosion proved to be a powerful unifying force. Despite internal factionalism and organisational strains, the leadership succeeded in forging a broad consensus. Early preparation for the local elections, timely candidate selection at the grassroots level, and efforts to minimise internal dissent paid dividends. Campaigns were designed with a keen understanding that faith-based issues such as Sabarimala deeply resonate with voters. Above all, the UDF crafted a narrative to convincingly assert that its parliamentary victory was not a matter of chance, but the result of a deliberate and sustainable political resurgence.