The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is increasingly disrupting global fertilizer production and supply chains, raising concerns among economists and agricultural experts about the possibility of a wider food crisis.
The war has forced several fertilizer plants across the Gulf region to halt operations while also severely restricting maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route. Analysts warn that the longer the conflict continues, the greater the strain on global agricultural production.
War Hits Fertilizer Supply at a Critical Moment
For farmers in the Northern Hemisphere, the disruption has come at a particularly difficult time. The spring planting season is underway, and fertilizer demand typically peaks during this period.
While rising fuel prices are the most visible economic consequence of the conflict for consumers, fertilizer prices have also surged as the supply of key ingredients tightens.
Modern fertilizer production largely depends on natural gas. In the most widely used industrial process, natural gas is combined with nitrogen to produce ammonia, which is then refined into fertilizers such as urea, ammonium nitrate, and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN). These nitrogen-based fertilizers account for approximately 59 percent of global fertilizer consumption.
Agricultural experts estimate that without nitrogen fertilizers, roughly half of the world’s current food production would not be possible.
Gulf Region Plays a Key Role in Fertilizer Production
The Gulf region—home to major natural gas reserves—serves as a crucial hub for ammonia production. While the largest fertilizer producers globally include China, United States, India, and Russia, countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are also among the world’s top producers.
Nearly one-third of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer shipments normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. However, according to United Nations shipping data, the strategic waterway has been effectively closed since early March. Only four ships passed through the strait on March 7, compared with an average of 129 daily transits during February.
As a result, fertilizer shipments have been severely restricted, causing prices to surge. Urea prices have climbed to around $594 per ton, compared with $464 per ton on February 27—the day before the war began.
Other agricultural inputs are also experiencing price increases. Sulfur, a fossil fuel byproduct widely used to enhance crop yields and strengthen plants against disease, has seen spot prices rise by more than 20 percent in Chinese markets during the same period.
Higher marine fuel costs and soaring shipping insurance premiums have further intensified supply chain disruptions.
LNG Supply Shock Impacts Fertilizer Production Abroad
The crisis is also affecting fertilizer plants outside the Gulf. Many international ammonia facilities rely on liquefied natural gas exported from the region.
Indian fertilizer manufacturers have already reduced urea production after Qatar halted all liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, temporarily removing around 20 percent of global LNG exports from the market.
Food Prices Could Rise Further
Rising fertilizer costs are expected to translate into higher food prices worldwide. Supply disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the fertilizer price spike that followed the escalation of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2022 have already pushed food prices across much of Europe roughly one-third higher than their 2019 levels, according to the European Central Bank.
Meanwhile, the European Union has reduced reliance on Russian gas in favour of LNG imports from the United States and Qatar. However, rising energy costs have forced several European fertilizer manufacturers to scale back operations.
Poland’s state-owned fertilizer company Grupa Azoty temporarily stopped accepting new orders in early March after European natural gas prices surged by 50 percent. The company later resumed orders at updated market rates.
Developing Nations Most Vulnerable
Experts warn that the world’s poorest countries could be hardest hit by the fertilizer shortage.
A report released by UN Trade and Development identified Sudan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Somalia, Kenya, and Mozambique among the nations most dependent on fertilizers imported from the Gulf region.
For instance, Gulf suppliers account for approximately 54 percent of Sudan’s fertilizer supply and about 36 percent of Sri Lanka’s.
Farmers in developing economies often lack the financial capacity to absorb rising input costs, meaning prolonged shortages could quickly lead to declining crop yields and, in severe cases, famine.
Russia Emerges as a Major Beneficiary
While many countries face shortages, Russia appears to be benefiting from the surge in global fertilizer prices. Together with Belarus, Russia accounts for roughly 20 percent of global fertilizer exports.
According to official data, Russian fertilizer production increased by 3.5 percent in 2025, reaching a record 65.4 million tonnes.
Despite rising costs across Europe, the European Union has imposed tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers in an effort to weaken Russia’s wartime economy.
However, Russia has redirected much of its fertilizer exports toward BRICS nations, increasing shipments to these markets by about 60 percent between 2021 and 2024.
The booming agricultural sector has also produced new wealth in Russia. According to the Forbes 2026 World’s Billionaires list, seven of the 14 new billionaires added in Russia last year earned their fortunes in agriculture and food production.
These include Aleksandr Tkachev, co-founder of the major food producer Agrocomplex, and Vadim Moshkovich, who controls the agricultural conglomerate Rusagro.
Meanwhile, fertilizer tycoons Andrey Melnichenko and Dmitry Mazepin have also seen their fortunes grow due to continuing European demand for fertilizer products.
Uncertain Path to Resolution
The future of global fertilizer markets largely depends on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which analysts say is unlikely while hostilities between the United States and Iran continue.
Officials in The White House have indicated that the conflict could persist for at least another two months. Donald Trump, the current U.S. president, has offered no clear timeline for ending the conflict, at times describing the war as “very complete,” while also warning of further military escalation if Iran interferes with maritime traffic.
The United States has reportedly considered deploying the United States Navy to escort commercial ships through the strait, although no formal decision has been announced.
Speaking to Fox News, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said efforts were underway to restore the flow of oil, gas, fertilizer, and other commodities from the Gulf.
However, maritime insurers remain reluctant to cover vessels transiting the strait amid the ongoing conflict, making large-scale shipping operations unlikely in the near term.
As long as energy facilities remain disrupted and retaliatory strikes continue across the region, experts warn that global fertilizer shortages—and the resulting risks to food security—could intensify in the months ahead.
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