WASHINGTON — A strong to very strong El Niño is likely to continue through the first quarter of 2027, according to the latest assessment by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center estimates that there is more than a 79 per cent chance of the phenomenon remaining strong or very strong during January to March 2027.
The agency also estimates an approximately 60 per cent chance of a historic-strength event during the October-December 2026 and November 2026-January 2027 periods. Such an event would exceed previous El Niño episodes recorded since 1950.
Sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have risen significantly. The Niño 3.4 region recorded a temperature anomaly of 2.5 degrees Celsius above average, while even higher anomalies were recorded in other parts of the Pacific.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that can influence weather patterns across the world. It may increase the likelihood of drought and higher temperatures in some regions while bringing heavier rainfall to others.
NOAA expects the current event to strengthen further before gradually weakening in early 2027. However, the agency cautions that the effects vary from region to region and cannot be predicted from the strength of the phenomenon alone.
The development is being closely monitored because of its potential influence on global rainfall patterns, temperatures and seasonal weather conditions.
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