Northern Ireland: People likely to face re-election by Christmas

Northern Ireland will face assembly elections before Christmas unless power-sharing is restored in the next 10 days, the government has confirmed.

Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, hinted at an 8 or 15 December polling day during evidence at a House of Commons select committee. It would be the second election for Northern Ireland this year.

Heaton-Harris told MPs his focus was “trying to charm, beguile, coax everybody” to return to Stormont by a 28 October deadline. However, with the Democratic Unionist party’s continuing boycott over the Northern Ireland protocol, this is considered unlikely. Northern Ireland’s chief electoral officer has reportedly written to the parties informing them that 15 December will be the polling date if Heaton-Harris calls an election.

Since the DUP removed its senior representatives, including the first minister, in February in opposition to the protocol of the Brexit trade deal, which requires checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain, the devolved government has not fully operated.

After the May elections, in which Sinn Féin overtook the party for the first time, the DUP kept up its boycott.

"If we do not receive a reformed executive by one minute after midnight on October 28th, I will be calling an election," Heaton-Harris warned the House of Commons. "That is what the law compels me to do, and that is what I will be doing."

The possibility that Heaton-Harris would postpone a second election arose with the commencement of negotiations between the UK and the EU about the protocol disagreement. Even if he were inclined to do so, he told the MPs, he did not "see the place" for the essential emergency legislation.

It is "probably realistic to believe that we're not going to have an executive in the next several weeks," according to Stephen Farry MP, deputy leader of the cross-community Alliance party.

When asked whether an election could occur on December 8 or December 15 by Ian Paisley of the DUP, Heaton-Harris responded that he would "like to think it will be a relatively short campaign." He said Paisley was "in the correct zone" and said an election would definitely take place before Christmas.

His remarks come at a time when there is increased interest in Northern Ireland and a flurry of visits to Belfast in the hopes that a settlement might be reached over the protocol dispute.

Jane Hartley, the US ambassador to the UK, visited Belfast on Tuesday, highlighting Joe Biden's ongoing dedication to upholding the peace accord 25 years after it was struck.

Today I’m making my first official visit to Northern Ireland – a place with so many strong & enduring connections with the United States. I’m looking forward to engaging with leaders & unsung heroes who promote stability & prosperity in the region. pic.twitter.com/FZRbdHuRrH

— Ambassador Jane Hartley (@USAmbUK) October 18, 2022

A team from the European parliament met with civic and political leaders last week, and the taoiseach, Micheál Martin, met with political parties on Monday. Steve Baker, a minister for Northern Ireland, will meet with the taoiseach the following week.

Talks with the EU, according to Heaton-Harris, were "difficult," but they were focused on the most important aspects of a resolution. Things are really complicated from all angles. There are discussions concerning the potential design of a landing zone," he stated.

James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, is in charge of the negotiations. His most recent meetings with Maro efovi, the EU's chief negotiator, took place on Monday.