Mexico Faces Budget Constraints Amid Looming U.S. Deportation Surge

Mexico's migration agencies are grappling with severe budget constraints, raising concerns about their ability to handle mass deportations anticipated under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's administration. Two Mexican government officials involved in preliminary planning have warned that proposed cuts to key agencies could leave them ill-equipped to manage an expected influx of deportees.

“We will have little room to maneuver to handle such a significant flow of migrants with a drastically reduced budget,” one official said on condition of anonymity.

Increasing Deportations Loom

While the exact number of deportations Trump may pursue remains uncertain, nearly half of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. at the start of 2022 were of Mexican origin, according to a U.S. Department of Homeland Security report. Mexico has historically received more than 200,000 deportees annually, but experts believe Trump's policies could sharply increase these numbers.

Additionally, the Trump administration is likely to pressure Mexico to accept deportees from third countries, such as Venezuela, Haiti, and Nicaragua, who are challenging to repatriate directly from the U.S.

Financial Challenges

President Claudia Sheinbaum, who inherited a budget deficit of nearly 6%—the highest since the 1980s—has pledged to stabilize Mexico’s finances amidst the risk of a credit rating downgrade. This has necessitated budget cuts across multiple sectors, including migration-related agencies.

The proposed 2025 budget allocates approximately $85 million to the National Institute of Migration (INM) and the Mexican Commission for Refugee Assistance (COMAR), marking a 10% reduction compared to this year.

By contrast, INM has already spent nearly $68 million this year on contracts with airlines and bus companies to move non-Mexican migrants away from the U.S. border under an expanded containment strategy. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, previously pivotal in migration policy, faces an 8% budget cut, while the National Guard, tasked with policing migration, is slated for a budget reduction of nearly 50%.

Planning and Uncertainty

President Sheinbaum has assured the public of a plan to manage the deportation of Mexican nationals, though specifics remain vague. “We hope it doesn’t happen, but if it does, we will be prepared to receive them,” she said on Thursday.

Mexican authorities currently provide initial assistance to deportees through INM agents, temporary shelters, and job placement programs in partnership with private companies. Officials are optimistic that mass deportations in the U.S. will take time to implement, giving Mexico an opportunity to develop a more robust strategy.

Sheinbaum also expressed hope for a bilateral agreement with the Trump administration to ensure Mexico does not have to accept deportees from third countries.

Expert Concerns

Migration experts have raised alarms about the impact of budget reductions. Rafael Hernandez, a migration researcher at Colegio de la Frontera Norte (Colef), called the cuts “very worrying.” He highlighted concerns about COMAR, which is set to receive just $2.3 million in 2025—a 10% decrease from this year.

“This budget is wholly inadequate given the rising number of individuals requiring international protection,” Hernandez said.

Awaiting Congressional Approval

The proposed budget, which still requires congressional approval, could undergo changes before implementation. However, with the looming prospect of increased deportations and strained resources, Mexico's ability to respond effectively remains uncertain.

Despite repeated requests, Mexico's presidency, migration institute, and refugee assistance commission have not yet commented on the situation.