Russian Naval Base in Tartus Faces Uncertainty as Syrian Civil War Intensifies

The Russian naval base at Tartus, a strategic stronghold on Syria's Mediterranean coast, is under growing threat as the Assad regime faces intensified opposition in the civil war. As the conflict edges closer to the base, Russia appears to be taking precautionary measures, signaling potential shifts in its naval strategy.

Currently, five Russian naval vessels and a submarine are stationed at Tartus, including two Gorshkov-class frigates, a Grigorovich-class frigate, two auxiliaries, and an Improved Kilo-class submarine. However, on the morning of December 2, 2024, the auxiliary vessel Yelnya, a Project 160 Altay-class oiler, was observed departing Tartus. Reports suggest other vessels, including the submarine and frigates, may have followed suit.

Strategic Movements Amid Escalating Conflict

The sudden departure comes amidst a rapid deterioration of the Assad regime’s position, with opposition forces advancing toward Damascus. Though unconfirmed, analysts believe the withdrawal of Russian naval assets is directly linked to the escalating conflict. Droxford Maritime, a respected naval analysis group, noted on social media platforms X and Bluesky, “There is a realistic possibility the departure is related to the worsening situation in Syria.”

The Yelnya is a critical asset for sustaining Russian naval operations in the Mediterranean, and its relocation could indicate a broader strategy to safeguard key resources.

Tartus: Russia’s Strategic Foothold

Established in 1971, the Tartus naval base has been a cornerstone of Russian military presence overseas, particularly since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2012. Its significance grew further following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, serving as a counterbalance to NATO's Mediterranean operations.

Tartus has also acted as a staging point for Russian warships en route to the Black Sea. However, after Türkiye blocked additional Russian warships, including two Slava-class cruisers, from entering the Black Sea post-invasion, many remained stationed in the Mediterranean. These assets have since played a pivotal role in bolstering Russia’s naval posture in the region.

Deteriorating Outlook for Russia’s Mediterranean Strategy

The situation at Tartus raises questions about Russia’s ability to maintain its Mediterranean foothold. The base faces the risk of attack or abandonment as opposition forces encroach on Assad-held territories. Should Russian warships evacuate Tartus entirely, they are expected to retreat to safer ports in the Baltic Sea, possibly stopping in Algeria or Libya en route.

If Tartus remains under Russian control, it could still serve as a hub for reinforcements. However, the logistics of heavy reinforcements are challenging; while air deployments are faster, moving heavy equipment would likely require weeks-long maritime transits. The cessation of the so-called “Syrian Express,” regular Russian ship transits to the Black Sea, complicates this further. Since February 2024, these transits have been halted due to increased threats from Ukrainian surface drones (USVs) in the Black Sea. Reattempting this route to reinforce or evacuate Tartus would expose Russian vessels to significant risk, with Ukraine’s USVs posing a credible threat.

Spy Ship Activity Raises Questions

Meanwhile, the Russian spy ship Yantar, known for its operations near undersea cables, remains in the Mediterranean. After briefly docking in Algiers on November 30, it has gone dark on AIS (Automated Information System) tracking. The implications of the Syrian conflict on Yantar’s operations remain uncertain.

Broader Geopolitical Implications

If Russia ultimately abandons Tartus, the geopolitical fallout could be profound. The loss of its primary overseas naval base would mark a significant strategic setback, reshaping Russia's influence in the Mediterranean and the broader Middle East. However, the full ramifications remain difficult to predict.

As the situation in Syria evolves, all eyes are on Tartus and its role in Russia's broader military and geopolitical strategy.