Bangladesh's Pivot to China and Rising Tensions with India Raise Geostrategic Alarms

NEW DELHI, April 18, 2025: Relations between India and Bangladesh have entered a turbulent phase following a series of political, diplomatic, and security developments in Dhaka. The interim government in Bangladesh, led by Nobel laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus, has taken a markedly different approach from its predecessor—prompting concern in New Delhi and adding complexity to an already delicate regional equation.

India has strongly objected to Dhaka's recent remarks on communal unrest in West Bengal’s Murshidabad district, calling the comments “unwarranted” and suggesting that Bangladesh should instead address issues of minority persecution within its own borders. The rebuke signals a sharp deterioration in bilateral dialogue, with India accusing the interim administration of politicizing internal matters for regional leverage.

A Shift in Foreign Policy: From Balance to Tilt

The departure of Sheikh Hasina from office in August 2024 marked a turning point in Bangladesh’s foreign policy. Under Hasina, Dhaka had successfully balanced its strategic ties with both New Delhi and Beijing. However, that equilibrium appears to have given way to a new tilt—this time towards China.

Yunus’ visit to Beijing from March 26 to 29 and his subsequent meeting with President Xi Jinping underscored this shift. Official sources in New Delhi have expressed concern over the growing strategic cooperation between Dhaka and Beijing, particularly in light of Bangladesh’s evolving economic and foreign policy agenda.

Further inflaming the situation, Yunus made a provocative remark describing India’s Northeast as “landlocked” and stating that Bangladesh is the “sole guardian of the ocean for this entire region.” The statement was interpreted in India as a direct challenge to its regional connectivity strategy and prompted an immediate review of strategic preparedness.

India's Military Response at the Siliguri Corridor

In response, India has significantly enhanced its military posture at the strategically critical Siliguri Corridor—often referred to as the "Chicken’s Neck." The narrow, 22-kilometre-wide land strip connects India’s mainland to its Northeastern states and has long been viewed as a potential vulnerability in national defense.

According to defense sources, India has deployed the S-400 air defense system and stationed Rafale fighter jets at the Hashimara Airbase to safeguard the corridor from emerging threats. “Any attempts to destabilize this region will be met with resolute preparedness,” a senior Indian official said.

Incidents Fueling Diplomatic Strain

A series of events since the interim government assumed office have further strained India-Bangladesh ties:

• Vandalism at Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s Residence: On February 5, protestors attacked the historic residence of Bangladesh’s founding father, coinciding with a virtual address by former PM Sheikh Hasina from India. India condemned the act as “deeply regrettable,” calling it a symbolic attack on Bangladesh’s liberation history. The interim government in Dhaka dismissed the condemnation, blaming Hasina’s “provocative” remarks for inciting unrest.
  
  
• Controversial Social Media Post: Mahfuz Alam, an aide to Yunus, shared a now-deleted Facebook post on Bangladesh’s Victory Day (December 16, 2024), which displayed Indian territories—including West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura—as part of Bangladesh. India lodged a strong diplomatic protest, emphasizing the importance of responsible public articulation from those in positions of influence.
  
  
• Targeted Violence Against Hindu Minorities: Following the political transition, reports emerged of violence against Hindu communities, including attacks on temples and properties. Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed deep concern, calling for an urgent return to normalcy and security for all minority groups. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited Dhaka in December 2024 to underscore these concerns.
  
  
• Extradition Request for Sheikh Hasina: The interim government has formally requested the extradition of Sheikh Hasina, who sought refuge in India post-ouster. India has declined to comply, citing diplomatic sensitivities and human rights considerations. The move has contributed to a surge in anti-India sentiment across parts of Bangladesh.

A Diplomatic Crossroads

India’s measured but firm responses at multilateral platforms such as the recent BIMSTEC summit have emphasized the need for responsible diplomacy and regional cooperation. Prime Minister Modi is reported to have urged Yunus to avoid divisive rhetoric and instead focus on restoring trust and cooperation between the two nations.

As Bangladesh undergoes political transition, India watches closely. The strategic importance of the Siliguri Corridor, coupled with Dhaka’s growing proximity to Beijing, places South Asia at a critical juncture where diplomacy, defense, and regional cooperation must carefully intersect.