As the high-intensity West Asia conflict enters its third week in March 2026, the Pentagon has reported a significant decline in Iran’s offensive capabilities, citing a steep reduction in both ballistic missile launches and drone activity.
During a press briefing on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated that Iranian ballistic missile launches have dropped by nearly 90%, while the use of loitering or “kamikaze” drones has declined by approximately 83%. The administration has characterised this as a major operational setback for Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Washington Claims Strategic Success
According to U.S. officials, the decline is the result of sustained strikes under “Operation Epic Fury,” targeting Iran’s defence industrial infrastructure. The campaign reportedly focused on missile production facilities, assembly units, and fortified storage sites.
The Pentagon claims that more than 7,000 targets have been hit, including key missile manufacturing entities, effectively limiting Iran’s ability to replenish its arsenal. From Washington’s perspective, the sharp reduction in launch activity reflects a structural degradation of Iran’s strike capabilities rather than a tactical pause.
Analysts Urge Caution
However, independent analysts and military historians have urged caution in interpreting the figures. Drawing parallels with the Gulf War, experts note that similar claims regarding the destruction of Iraqi missile capabilities were later found to be overstated, as launches continued until the closing stages of the war.
Some analysts suggest that the reduction in drone and missile activity may indicate a strategic shift rather than an operational collapse. There are concerns that remaining assets—particularly “Shahed”-type drones—may have been relocated to concealed or mobile launch platforms, making them harder to detect and target.
Concerns Over ‘Strategic Hoarding’
A growing school of thought within defence circles warns that Iran may be conserving its advanced capabilities, including systems such as the Fattah hypersonic missile, for a potential large-scale retaliatory strike.
Such a strategy could involve a “saturation attack” aimed at overwhelming regional missile defence systems, including U.S. and allied assets deployed in the Gulf. By reducing current launch activity, Iran could be attempting to create a false sense of operational decline before executing a more concentrated offensive.
Leadership and Command Questions
The situation is further complicated by reports of disruptions within Iran’s leadership structure, following the deaths of senior figures including Ali Larijani and intelligence chief Esmail Khatib.
Hegseth suggested that such losses may have weakened Iran’s command-and-control capabilities, potentially contributing to the reduced operational tempo. However, Tulsi Gabbard, in recent Senate testimony, indicated that elements of Iran’s strategic command structure may still remain intact.
US Prepares for Further Action
Amid the uncertainty, the United States appears to be preparing for further escalation. Officials have indicated that a “significant strike package” is planned in the coming days, aimed at neutralising any remaining strategic reserves.
By intensifying operations and targeting potential storage and launch sites, U.S. forces aim to prevent any large-scale retaliatory strike and maintain pressure on Iran’s military infrastructure.
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