Guinea Holds Referendum on New Constitution Amid Fears of Power Consolidation

Guinea went to the polls on Sunday in a long-awaited referendum on a new constitution that could reshape the country’s political future. The proposed charter, if approved, would extend the presidential term from five to seven years (renewable once) and establish a Senate, with one-third of its members directly appointed by the president.

The referendum has drawn intense scrutiny as it may open the door for coup leader Mamady Doumbouya to contest future presidential elections—despite his earlier pledge not to do so when he seized power in 2021.

Delayed Transition to Civilian Rule

The military-led government, which oversees a nation holding the world’s largest reserves of bauxite, had originally set December 31, 2024 as the deadline for a return to civilian governance. That milestone has passed, and presidential elections are now tentatively scheduled for December this year.

Critics argue that the referendum represents yet another attempt by a junta in West and Central Africa to entrench its power. Between 2020 and 2023, eight coups transformed the region’s political landscape, raising international concerns about democratic backsliding.

Opposition Boycott and Human Rights Concerns

Doumbouya has not confirmed whether he intends to run for office. A transition charter adopted in 2021 explicitly barred junta members from contesting the next presidential election. However, opposition leaders fear the referendum paves the way for him to extend his grip on power.

Both Cellou Dalein Diallo, a longtime opposition figure, and deposed former President Alpha Condé have called for a boycott. Their parties remain suspended, limiting organized opposition to the vote. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch has accused the government of forcibly disappearing political opponents and arbitrarily suspending media outlets. The government has denied involvement in disappearances but pledged to investigate.

Voting and Campaign Atmosphere

Polling stations were scheduled to open at 7 a.m. (0700 GMT) and close at 6 p.m. (1800 GMT) on Sunday, though the timing of results remains uncertain. In the days leading up to the vote, Conakry, the capital, was dotted with white campaign posters bearing a green checkmark and the word “Yes.”

Economic Signal

Amid political uncertainty, S&P Global Ratings on Thursday issued Guinea its first-ever sovereign credit rating—B+ with a stable outlook—placing it as the third highest-rated economy in West Africa. The agency noted progress toward a civilian administration but warned of “high social needs, elevated opposition tensions, accusations of arbitrary arrests, and increasing pressure on the media.”